English

DTIC ADA043054: Spill Risk Analysis Program. Methodology Development and Demonstration. Volume I.

This report describes research and results in the development and demonstration of systematic methods of assessing the effectiveness of either proposed or recently implemented merchant marine safety regulations. The methods have been designed primarily to assist Coast Guard regulatory decision-makers in their selection of alternative means of reducing marine transportation casualties and spills of hazardous or polluting materials. The methodology involves both analytical and logical modeling of merchant marine operations and the casualty process. Analytic modeling of ship collisions is primarily in terms of the physical parameters (e.g., vessel size, speed, maneuverability) of the system, but human response parameters are also considered. Logical modeling of casualties addresses the effects of changes in regulations and involves the structured conduct of quasi-experiments using the Coast Guard data base of marine casualty reports. A preliminary analysis of the Coast Guard Pollution Incident Reporting System (PIRS) is also included. This report supplements, but does not replace information contained in Report No. CG-D-15-75, Spill Risk Analysis Program Phase II Methodology Developme

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