English

DTIC ADA478415: Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA)

A Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) is developed to predict survival time for hypothermia and dehydration during prolonged exposure at sea in both air and water for a wide range of environmental conditions. PSDA calculates the survival time of a victim in the water or floating in an emergency craft as a function of human anthropometric parameters, clothing, and enviromnental variables. PSDA consists of a Six Cylinder Thermoregulatory Model (SCTM) and a Graphic User Interface (GUI) which manages inputs, runs the models, and displays output. The GUI allows users to easily use PSDA by selecting or entering inputs for ten basic parameters. It is then updated display predictions for the cold functional time, cold survival time, dehydration survival time, and the empirical dehydration survival time. PSDA was validated using historical survival data, reported cases for accidental water immersions, and limited data for channel swimmers. For ten immersion victims for whom height and weight are known, the predicted survival time for each victim was either very close to or greater than the observed survival time. However, the predictive capability of PSDA is limited by the supportin

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